AGP Executive Report

Wildfire Fallout: Residents in West Kalimantan have taken President Prabowo and other officials to court over alleged failures to control fires burning for months, while protesters in Jambi demanded stronger action. Malaysia closed schools across several states and Kuala Lumpur as Indonesian haze drove unhealthy air readings; Prime Minister Anwar urged Prabowo to act. Fire Response: Hotspots fell 67% to 387 on Thursday, but air quality remains unhealthy in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, and officials warn dry conditions could reignite fires. Orangutans have also been rescued from fire-hit areas, some with burns. Food Security: Bulog says rice purchases from local farmers reached 4.11 million tonnes by Oct. 8, beating the government’s 2026 target of 4 million tonnes. Indonesian Sport: Tennis player Janice Tjen will return as top seed to defend her Chennai Open title from Nov. 2–8.

Haze and Fires: Thick smoke across South Sumatra has pushed air quality into hazardous territory, disrupted 30 flights in Palembang and raised suspicion that fires are burning on corporate concessions. Industrial Push: President Prabowo launched 11 Chinese-backed downstream projects worth US$10.2 billion in North Maluku, alongside Indonesia’s first exports of EV batteries made there. Asset Seizure Bill: The proposed law is moving toward debate, with supporters hoping it can recover corruption proceeds and critics warning rushed drafting could invite abuse. Solar Ambition: Industry and government figures say the 100-GW solar target is achievable, but faster action on rules, permits, investment certainty and grid capacity is needed. Child Protection: Two children under 12 have been named in a fatal school-bullying case in Central Java; authorities say their handling will follow juvenile justice rules.

Haze Crisis: South Sumatra recorded 59,275 fire hotspots since September, while Palembang logged 17,434 respiratory infections in the month. Smoke is disrupting daily life and prompting a lawsuit accusing the state of negligence. Fiscal Restraint: Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara ordered ministries to cut remaining travel budgets by 30% and freeze non-essential spending to keep the 2026 deficit below 3% of GDP. Ojol Rules: A new regulation caps ride-hailing platform fees at 8%, but drivers question whether the change will actually raise their take-home pay. Industrial Push: President Prabowo launched a US$10.2 billion downstreaming project in North Maluku and urged operators to protect air and water quality and manage waste. Justice: Former Ombudsman chairman Hery Susanto denied bribery charges and asked the court to restore his reputation; meanwhile, a former teacher convicted of sexually abusing a student has been returned to prison after an investigation exposed his early release.

Child Online Safety: TikTok says it has deactivated 9 million accounts belonging to under-16s to comply with Indonesia’s child-protection rules. Meta has also removed 184,000 accounts, while the government says Threads has yet to show compliance. Peat Fires and Haze: Researchers warn that record fires are driven by collapsing peat water tables, not just a lack of firefighting. Nearly 895,000 hectares had burned by late August, and smoke is disrupting flights as Indonesia faces a state-negligence complaint over fires. Security and Government: Parliament has reportedly received President Prabowo’s proposed replacement of TNI chief Agus Subiyanto, with Army chief Maruli Simanjuntak named as a possible successor. Separately, the KPK has named eight new suspects in a North Sumatra road-agency bribery case. Industry and Investment: Indonesia is weighing a pause on new nickel smelters amid oversupply. Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan urged investors to stay confident, saying the economy’s fundamentals remain sound.

Haze Lawsuit: An Indonesian court opened a class action accusing the government of negligence over wildfire smoke in West Kalimantan. The plaintiffs want a national disaster declaration; none of the 10 defendants attended the first hearing. Nickel Policy: Jakarta is weighing a halt to new semi-finished nickel smelters as global oversupply—estimated at 2.5 million tonnes—pushes prices down. Economic Resilience: Foreign reserves edged down to US$146.3 billion in September but still cover 5.3 months of imports; the rupiah strengthened slightly to Rp17,887 per dollar. Energy Transition: The government says 100 GW of solar capacity could cut electricity subsidies by up to Rp73 trillion, with completion targeted within three years. Gibran Ruling: The Constitutional Court did not disqualify Vice President Gibran over his education credentials, but said it found no convincing proof of an equivalent foreign diploma, leaving questions about which institution can assess his eligibility.

Jakarta Concert Spotlight: Kanye West’s only South-east Asian show in Jakarta is drawing attention to how promoters sold the deal with Indonesia’s music, art and production scale. Disaster Watch: A magnitude 5.2 earthquake struck near Lombok, with tremors felt across Bali; BMKG said no tsunami threat and no major damage reported. Wildlife Crisis: New reporting warns Indonesia’s Sumatran and Javan rhinos are on the brink, with fewer than 50 of each species estimated to remain in the wild. Environment & Tourism: A Bali study says coral reefs keep declining at a major tourism hub, pointing to governance gaps and unaddressed pollution drivers. Health Security: Indonesia is tightening health checks after a suspected plague-linked death in Russia. Business & Investment: Godrej Consumer Products inaugurated the first phase of its Kendal plant to expand local manufacturing and exports, while Garuda moves to retake majority control of GMF Aeroasia. Regional Connectivity: Riyadh Air opened bookings for a new Riyadh–Jakarta route launching 16 November.

Energy & Industry Push: Indonesia targets Rp3,839.9 trillion in downstreaming investment for 2025-2029, aiming to lift exports and value-added growth, while a new coordinating ministry is set to speed the energy transition, including replacing 13 GW of diesel power with solar and adding a 7 GW nuclear target. Trade & Deals: Trade Minister Budi Santoso is pushing to sign the Indonesia-EU CEPA by end-October to protect tariff preferences, and discussed trade barriers and investment with US business leaders. Environment & Data Access: Indonesia is restricting access to forest data, warning users they could face prosecution, as deforestation pressure rises. Public Safety: Five people died after a truck overturned in East Nusa Tenggara; in Surabaya, an LPG leak is suspected after an explosion injured five workers. Health Security: Indonesia tightened health surveillance at entry points after a suspected plague-linked death in Russia. Urban Resilience: Jakarta remains vulnerable to disasters, with calls to strengthen mitigation and emergency response planning. Sports & Society: UniGames 2026 wraps up Campus League’s first season, while Malaysia’s Harimau Malaya campaign highlighted Indonesia’s defensive record in the FIFA ASEAN Cup.

Climate Diplomacy: World leaders are set to visit Tuvalu’s main atoll for the pre-COP31 summit, spotlighting how the country sits just about two metres above sea level and faces rising seas. Data & AI Infrastructure: Singapore-based data centre operator DayOne has filed for a US IPO, flagging a revenue surge but also highlighting the sector’s growing scrutiny over electricity and water use; it operates across Asia-Pacific including Indonesia. Migrant Worker Crackdown: Indonesia says it stopped 6,555 prospective migrant workers from illegal deployments since Oct 2024, and handled tens of thousands of repatriation cases. Health Security: Indonesia is tightening health surveillance at entry points after a suspected plague-related pneumonia case in Russia, using risk-based checks via SATUSEHAT. Maritime Rescue: Plans are moving to raise the sunken ferry Virgo Transport 8, aiming to recover additional missing people if remains can be preserved. Energy Reliability: An IEA report warns ASEAN faces widening electricity security challenges as demand rises, with Indonesia expected to drive the biggest growth. Sports & Culture: Indonesia won the inaugural FIFA ASEAN Cup on penalties vs Thailand; Indonesia also announced 2027 holiday dates.

Aviation & Trade: Riyadh Air opened ticket sales for a new Riyadh–Jakarta route, starting Nov 16, 2026, using Boeing 787-9 flights three times weekly—boosting business, diplomacy and religious travel as bilateral trade rises. Public Safety & Justice: Indonesia will build rehabilitation and re-education centers to cut prison overcapacity, targeting narcotics offenders of productive age, with ministries given a week to draft the policy framework. Economy & Industry: Toy exports climbed to US$351.8 million in Jan–Jun 2026, as the Industry Ministry pushes quality upgrades, standardization and wider market access. Water & Industry: A Jakarta workshop (Nov 16–18) will tackle West Java’s industrial water problems, bringing brands, finance, manufacturers, utilities and government into investable action. Environment & Health: Despite fewer hotspots, groups warn wildfire risk remains high due to peatland fires and El Niño dryness, with haze impacts still hitting the region. Sports: Prabowo pledged full support for Indonesia’s football development after FIFA praised the successful FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026. Wildlife: Conservationists urge urgent action to protect Bornean orangutans as El Niño-fueled fires threaten key rainforest populations.

Digital Rupiah Push: Bank Indonesia is accelerating Indonesia’s digital payments push with the Digital Rupiah, building on QRIS and BI-FAST as retail and e-commerce transactions surge. Data Center Debate: Experts warn Indonesia must tighten regulations and grid readiness as data centers expand fast—otherwise the country risks becoming a service “place” while carrying heavy electricity and water burdens. Peatland Fire Response: Indonesia’s new peatland agency gets more powers, but observers say enforcement and coordination still need work to curb forest fires. Regional Haze Politics: A commentary argues Malaysia’s leverage on transboundary haze is limited by sovereignty, but it can still push for better transparency and shared hotspot and enforcement data. Corruption Court Fight: The Nadiem Makarim Chromebook corruption case heads to the cassation arena after both defense and prosecutors file appeals. Public Safety Crackdown: Police raid illegal cockfighting premises, arresting 41 men. Health Alert: Indonesia steps up anthrax control in Yogyakarta after a case is detected, with investigations, disinfection, vaccination and monitoring underway. Culture & IP: BI urges stronger copyright protection for East Nusa Tenggara woven fabric to boost weavers’ incomes and market reach.

Asian Games Wrap: Indonesia closed Aichi-Nagoya with 39 medals (5 gold, 11 silver, 23 bronze), beating its target of four golds and finishing 16th, while the Philippines ended with 29 medals (4 gold, 9 silver, 16 bronze) in its best haul in 64 years. Earthquake Watch: A magnitude 5.9 quake hit Southwest Sumba, triggering 62 aftershocks, with no tsunami threat; a separate 6.1 quake also struck the region and a 5.9 quake hit Aceh, with at least one death reported in Sumba. Nutrition Push in Papua: Indonesia launched 13 new MBG kitchens (SPPGs) in Papua, including 10 in 3T areas, and said oversight will tighten after past food-safety incidents. Public Health & Fires: In Palangka Raya, a community Smoke Safe House is offering free oxygen and nebulizer treatment as haze worsens breathing problems. Trade & Industry: Luhut urged faster seaweed downstreaming with tech and investment, and Indonesia pushed the I-EU CEPA fast-track ahead of EU GSP expiry. Security/Immigration: Indonesia denied entry to a Chinese national suspected in a Starlux theft case after coordination with Taiwan authorities.

Indonesia-Philippines Legal Case: Mary Jane Veloso says her priority is lifting her family out of poverty, but she also wants to pursue charges against her alleged recruiters after her 2024 pardon and return. Cultural Diplomacy: Indonesia’s National Library received 100 book titles from 11 Chinese publishers, expanding access to China-focused knowledge. Digital Economy: Bank Indonesia pushes the Digital Rupiah forward, citing a halal fatwa and starting cross-border transaction trials, while stressing the need for regulation, safety, and consumer protection. Sports Spotlight (Asian Games): Qatar made history with padel’s first men’s gold at Aichi-Nagoya 2026, while Japan beat Indonesia in men’s sepak takraw quadrant for the sport’s first gold; Iran also retained men’s volleyball title. Markets & Tech: A report flags stablecoin innovation risks in Korea’s bank-led model, and another notes Indonesia’s IDX Composite saw the steepest regional decline among reviewed markets in September. Public Policy & Governance: Prabowo inaugurated 26 Presidential Advisory Council members, adding to the growing advisory layer around the president.

ASEAN Football: Malaysia will face Vietnam in the ASEAN FIFA Cup third-place playoff in Jakarta without captain Dion Cools and winger Mohamad Faisal Abdul Halim due to injuries and urgent family matters, while newly naturalised striker Bergson Da Silva is cleared to play after suspension. Asian Games Spotlight: Japan beat Indonesia 2-1 in men’s sepak takraw quadrant action, taking the country’s first-ever gold in the sport, as the Aichi-Nagoya Games near their close. Indonesian Policy Watch: The Communications and Digital Affairs Ministry set up a complaint channel for protection of unused mobile data quotas, pushing operators to align with the Constitutional Court ruling and submit monthly compliance reports. Tourism & Culture: Indonesia’s Tourism Ministry is rolling out gastronomy tourism through WIG 2026, aiming to turn culinary heritage into travel demand and local economic benefits. Road Safety: The Transport Ministry is tightening safety management for public transport and stepping up oversight against overloaded vehicles to cut accidents and fatalities. Heat & Wildlife: Semarang Zoo is using creative cooling tactics—like frozen meat and fruit cocktails—to protect animals as scorching weather persists. Governance & Education: Jakarta City Hall opened up through the Namu Balai Kota program, while Bali’s school revitalisation push is creating jobs and repairing damaged classrooms.

STEM Push: Indonesia’s higher education minister urged universities to boost STEM graduates, noting STEM-related majors are only about 28% of enrollments and warning the workforce needs to better match industry demand. Asian Games Glory: Wang Xiyu won women’s tennis singles gold and an Olympic berth, while Indonesia’s badminton contingent returned with medals including two golds, one silver and three bronzes. Sports Spotlight: South Korea avoided a gold drought by retaining the men’s recurve archery team title, beating India 5-1. Consumer Shift: With purchasing power under pressure, Indonesians are changing beauty buying habits—choosing better value, smaller packs, and adjusting purchase frequency rather than quitting products. Colonial Reckoning: A Dutch study says the House of Orange-Nassau helped colonialism and the slave trade survive, a finding that drew a painful response from King Willem-Alexander. Energy & Policy: OPEC+ delayed its 2027 oil capacity review after Iran-related disruptions, with baselines now expected by mid-November. Regional Environment: El Niño-linked extremes are driving both drought and flooding risks, with Indonesia and the wider region watching haze and weather impacts.

Asian Games Spotlight: China’s Wang Xiyu beat Zhang Shuai 6-2, 6-1 to win women’s tennis singles gold and secure an Olympic berth, after a tough win over Alexandra Eala. Government & Society: President Prabowo swore in new Government Communications Agency leadership and appointed 26 Presidential Advisory Council members, including Sinta Nuriyah, M. Quraish Shihab and Rocky Gerung, as the administration pushes unity-focused messaging. Disaster & Safety: Indonesia named four suspects over the deadly Java Sea ferry sinking (Virgo Transport 8), with the death toll reported at 80 and 55 still missing. Environment & Health: El Niño-linked drought and peatland fires are worsening haze and water shortages in Borneo, while local “Power of Mama” groups fight blazes with motorbike pumps. Trade & Economy: Exports rose as manufacturing and processing led growth, with August exports up 6.72% year-on-year. Regional Diplomacy: Indonesia urged cooperation to keep South China Sea peace through maritime workshops and confidence-building projects.

Maritime Safety: Indonesia police have arrested the captain of the Virgo Transport 8 ferry after the Java Sea capsizing that killed at least 78 people, with 57 still missing as the investigation moves to the Water Police Directorate. El Niño & Water Crisis: In Borneo, worsening El Niño drought plus peatland degradation is drying up rivers, forcing villagers to buy unsafe water and raising costs. Regional Haze & Health: Metro Manila air quality stayed “unhealthy for sensitive groups,” with DENR linking transboundary haze to fires in Kalimantan. Environment & Restoration: North Kalimantan mangrove rehabilitation is underway under the M4CR project, aiming to restore thousands of hectares with community consent. Fire Risk for Food Projects: Experts urge Indonesia to build fire risk maps for food estates after large burned areas were reported, warning against expanding into fire-prone zones. Foreign Policy: Prabowo appointed Arrmanatha Nasir as foreign minister in a cabinet reshuffle, keeping Indonesia’s active UN diplomacy in focus. Economy: Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in September, signaling expansion driven by stronger demand and exports. Culture: Canberra marks Indonesia’s National Batik Day with a greener tamarind cold-wax workshop.